Current Unemployment Rate (2024)

Current Unemployment Rate (1)March’s Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment is 3.8% down from 3.9% in February.

Adjusted Unemployment is above pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5% and the January and April lows of 2023.
Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”. See the chart below for more info.

Typically, the highest unemployment months are usually January, June, and July.

Unemployment Levels Since 2005

DateUnadjusted U3Adjusted U3
March 20243.9%3.8%
February 20244.2%3.9%
January 20244.1%3.7%
December 20233.5%3.7%
November 20233.5%3.7%
October 20233.6%3.9%
September 20233.6%3.8%
August 20233.9%3.8%
July 20233.8%3.5%
June 20233.8%3.6%
May 20233.4%3.7%
April 20233.1%3.4%
March 20233.6%3.5%
February 20233.9%3.6%
January 20233.9%3.4%
December 20223.3%3.5%
November 20223.4%3.6%
October 20223.4%3.7%
September 20223.3%3.5%
August 20223.8%3.7%
July 20223.8%3.5%
June 20223.8%3.6%
May 20223.4%3.6%
April 20223.3%3.6%
March 20223.8%3.6%
February 20224.1%3.8%
January 20224.4%4.0%
December 20213.7%3.9%
November 20213.9%4.2%
October 20214.3%4.6%
September 20214.6%4.8%
August 20215.3%5.2%
July 20215.7%5.4%
June 20216.1%5.9%
May 20215.5%5.8%
April 20215.7%6.1%
March 20216.2%6.0%
February 20216.6%6.2%
January 20216.8%6.3%
December 20206.5%6.7%
November 20206.4%6.7%
October 20206.6%6.9%
September 20207.7%7.9%
August 20208.5%11.1%
July 202010.5%13.3%
June 202011.2%11.1%
May 202013.0%13.3%
April 202014.4%14.7%
March 20204.5%4.4%
February 20203.8%3.5%
January 20204.0%3.6%

The worst months (highest unemployment) are usually January, June, and July. The best months (lowest unemployment) are typically November, and March or April.

Due to the Virus, we can also see that the 2020 numbers started the year much better than the 2010 numbers (during the post 2008 recession), i.e., 3.6% vs. 9.7% in 2010. Then 2020 got worse quickly, i.e., 14.7% in 2020 vs. 9.8% in 2010, but 2020 improved quickly while 2010 did not. Adjusted U-3 ended 2010 at 9.4% and 2020 at 6.7%.

200920102020
UnadjustedU3AdjustedU3UnadjustedU3AdjustedU3UnadjustedU3AdjustedU3
Jan8.5%7.8%10.6%9.7%4.0%3.6%
Feb8.9%8.2%10.4%9.7%3.8%3.5%
Mar9.0%8.6%10.2%9.7%4.5%*4.4%*
Apr8.6%8.9%9.5%9.8%14.4%*14.7%*
May9.1%9.4%9.3%9.6%13.0%*13.3%*
June9.7%9.5%9.6%9.5%11.2%*11.1%*
July9.7%9.5%9.7%9.5%10.5%*10.2%*
Aug9.6%9.7%9.5%9.6%8.5%*8.4%*
Sep9.5%9.8%9.2%9.6%7.7%7.9%
Oct9.5%10.1%9.0%9.7%6.6%6.9%
Nov9.4%9.9%9.3%9.8%6.4%6.7%
Dec9.7%9.9%9.1%9.4%6.5%6.7%

*COVID-19 Shutdown

Peak in Blue

See: The current Unemployment Rate Chart below.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction…”

“Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Blacks (6.4 percent) increased in March, while the rates for Asians (2.5 percent) and Hispanics (4.5 percent) decreased. The jobless rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (12.6 percent), and Whites (3.4 percent) showed little or no change over the month…”

“The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.2 million, was little changed in March. The long-term unemployed accounted for 19.5 percent of all unemployed people. Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.3 percent, were little changed in March. These measures showed little change over the year.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of156.555 million for Februarywhich they adjusted to 156.559 million (for a gain of 4,000 jobs).They are currently reporting 157.218 million jobs for Marchwhich is actually againof663,000 jobs compared to their original numbers.But many of these jobs came from government. Theoretically, the government could make the unemployment numbers continue to look good by simply hiring all the unemployed workers.

ADP provides an independent (non-government) estimate of private-sector employment and pay, based on data derived from ADP client payrolls. According to ADP®, In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

ADP: Private employers added 184,000 jobs in March

  • Last month saw the biggest jump in hiring since July, led by leisure and hospitality. Job gains were strong across industries with the exception of professional services, where hiring fell.

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Chart 1948-Present

Current US Unemployment Rate Chart

Unemployment is still below the previous lows of 1960, 1973, 1979, 1989, 2006-7, but moved above the pre-Covid lows of 2019 and the January and April lows of 2023. Unemployment is still within the “green zone” in the chart above.

Before the COVID-19 spike, February 2020’s 3.5% Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment levels were excellent, i.e., just a hair above the 1969 lows of 3.4%. The only break below 3.4% was all the way back in 1953 (during the Korean War). The COVID worldwide spike took unemployment to unprecedented high levels, but unemployment has returned to the “excellent” range.

Previous Record Low Unemployment Rates (Seasonally Adjusted U-3)

If we consider anything 4% or below as “low” we have had a few “low” stretches, as shown in the table below.

(4% or below in Green)

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
19506.5%6.4%6.3%5.8%5.5%5.4%5.0%4.5%4.4%4.2%4.2%4.3%
19513.7%3.4%3.4%3.1%3.0%3.2%3.1%3.1%3.3%3.5%3.5%3.1%
19523.2%3.1%2.9%2.9%3.0%3.0%3.2%3.4%3.1%3.0%2.8%2.7%
19532.9%2.6%2.6%2.7%2.5%2.5%2.6%2.7%2.9%3.1%3.5%4.5%
19544.9%5.2%5.7%5.9%5.9%5.6%5.8%6.0%6.1%5.7%5.3%5.0%
19554.9%4.7%4.6%4.7%4.3%4.2%4.0%4.2%4.1%4.3%4.2%4.2%
19564.0%3.9%4.2%4.0%4.3%4.3%4.4%4.1%3.9%3.9%4.3%4.2%
19574.2%3.9%3.7%3.9%4.1%4.3%4.2%4.1%4.4%4.5%5.1%5.2%
19585.8%6.4%6.7%7.4%7.4%7.3%7.5%7.4%7.1%6.7%6.2%6.2%
19654.9%5.1%4.7%4.8%4.6%4.6%4.4%4.4%4.3%4.2%4.1%4.0%
19664.0%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.9%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.7%3.7%3.6%3.8%
19673.9%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.9%3.8%3.8%3.8%4.0%3.9%3.8%
19683.7%3.8%3.7%3.5%3.5%3.7%3.7%3.5%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%
19693.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.7%3.7%3.5%3.5%
19703.9%4.2%4.4%4.6%4.8%4.9%5.0%5.1%5.4%5.5%5.9%6.1%
19994.3%4.4%4.2%4.3%4.2%4.3%4.3%4.2%4.2%4.1%4.1%4.0%
20004.0%4.1%4.0%3.8%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.1%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%
20014.2%4.2%4.3%4.4%4.3%4.5%4.6%4.9%5.0%5.3%5.5%5.7%
20184.0%4.1%4.0%4.0%3.8%4.0%3.8%3.8%3.7%3.8%3.8%3.9%
20194.0%3.8%3.8%3.6%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.5%3.6%3.6%3.6%
20203.5%3.5%4.4%14.7%13.2%11.0%10.2%8.4%7.9%6.9%6.7%6.7%
20216.3%6.2%6.1%6.1%5.8%5.9%5.4%5.2%4.8%4.5%4.2%3.9%
20224.0%3.8%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.5%3.7%3.5%3.7%3.6%3.5%
20233.4%3.6%3.5%3.4%3.7%3.6%3.5%3.8%3.8%3.9%3.7%3.7%
20243.7%3.9%3.8%

The following video gives a good explanation of the definition of unemployment.

Employment and Unemployment Numbers:

From the table below, we can see that employment and unemployment numbers are close to Pre-COVID numbers. Employment numbers are above February 2020 numbers, but since then, the Civilian Population has increased dramatically.

Unadj. U-6Unadj. U-3Adjusted U-3Employment (in Millions)Civilian Population(in Millions)Monthly Civilian Pop.Increase
January 201216.2%8.8%8.3%131.098242.2691,685,000***
January 201315.4%7.5%7.9%133.064244.663211,000
January 201413.5%7.0%6.6%135.471246.915170,000
January 201512.0%6.1%5.7%138.493249.723696,000***
January 201610.5%5.3%4.9%141.072252.397461,000
January 201710.1%5.1%4.8%143.377254.082-660,000**
January 20188.9%4.5%4.1%145.412256.780671,000***
January 20198.8%4.4%4.0%147.879*258.239-649,000**
January 20207.7%4.0%3.6%150.055259.502*-679,000**
February 20207.4%3.8%3.5%150.968259.628126,000
March 20208.9%4.5%4.4%149.952259.758 130,000
April 202022.4%14.4%14.7%130.253259.896138,000
May 202020.7%13.0%13.3%133.422260.047151,000
June 202018.3%11.2%11.1%138.501260.204157,000
July 202016.8%10.5%10.2%139.105260.373169,000
August 202014.3%8.5%8.4%140.727260.558185,000
September 202012.4%7.7%7.9%141.958260.742184,000
October 202011.6%6.6%6.9%143.565260.925183,000
November 202011.6%6.4%6.7%144.115261.085160,000
December 202011.6%6.5%6.7%143.605261.230145,000
January 202112.0%6.8%6.3%140.974260.851*-379,000**
February 202111.6%6.6%6.2%142.129260.91867,000
March 202110.9%6.2%6.0%143.308261.00385,000
April 20219.9%5.7%6.1%144.402261.103100,000
May 20219.7%5.5%5.8%145.392261.210105,000
June 202110.1%6.1%5.9%146.626261.338128,000
July 20219.6%5.7%5.4%146.619261.469131,000
August 20218.9%5.3%5.2%147.159261.611142,000
September 20218.1%4.6%4.8%147.917261.766155,000
October 20217.7%4.3%4.6%149.605261.908142,000
November 20217.4%3.9%4.2%150.543262.029121,000
December 20217.2%3.7%3.9%150.740262.136107,000
January 20227.9%4.4%4.0%147.932263.2021,066,000***
February 20227.6%4.1%3.8%149.606263.324122,000
March 20227.1%3.8%3.6%150.411263.444120,000
April 20226.6%3.3%3.6%151.434263.559115,000
May 20226.7%3.4%3.6%152.264263.679120,000
June 20227.0%3.8%3.6%153.175263.835156,000
July 20227.2%3.8%3.5%152.813264.012177,000
August 20227.0%3.8%3.7%153.208264.184172,000
September 20226.4%3.3%3.5%153.730264.356172,000
October 20226.3%3.4%3.7%154.936264.535179,000
November 20226.4%3.4%3.6%155.519264.708173,000
December 20226.4%3.3%3.5%155.211264.844136,000
January 20237.4%3.9%3.4%152.688265.9621,118,000***
February 20237.3%3.9%3.6%153.817266.112150,000
March 20236.8%3.6%3.5%154.253266.272160,000
April 20236.1%3.1%3.4%155.201266.443171,000
May 20236.4%3.4%3.7%156.132266.618175,000
June 20237.2%3.8%3.6%156.842266.801183,000
July 20237.1%3.8%3.5%155.981267.002201,000
August 20237.2%3.9%3.8%156.355267.213211,000
September 20236.7%3.6%3.8%156.845267.428215,000
October 20236.8%3.6%3.9%157.878267.642214,000
November 20236.7%3.5%3.7%158.347267.822180,000
December 20237.0%3.5%3.7%158.269267.991169,000
January 20248.0%4.1%3.7%155.432267.540-451,000**
February 20247.8%4.2%3.9%156.559267.711173,000
March 20247.4%3.9%3.8%157.218267.884171,000
Unadj.
U-6
Unadj.
U-3
Adjusted
U-3
Employment
(in Millions)
Civilian
Population
Civ. Pop.
Increase
1mo. Change-0.4%-0.3%-0.1%0.659171,000
12 mo. Change0.5%0.3%0.3%2.9651,612,000
Since Feb 20200.4%0.4%0.4%6.2508,256,000

Note: Due to COVID restrictions, employment dropped rapidly in 2020, but then employment rebounded. If we compare current employment levels to those prior to COVID (Feb 2020), we see Unadjusted U-6 is -0.2% below what it was in February 2020. And Unadjusted U-3 is the same as it was in February 2020. The number of people employed is 5.338 million higher, but the Civilian Population is also 7.173 million higher.

*Population control adjustments to the CPS adjusted by BLS.

**Due to the BLS syncing its data with the census bureau, which happens once a year (in January) and can be a huge change, so that doesn’t really mean that all of the increase or decrease occurred during January.

Read more about how Employment and Unemployment numbers compare.

*Note: January 2017 is the first time since we have been tracking the Civilian Population that we have seen a decrease. January 2016 saw an increase of 461,000. The BLS says that they readjust their numbers every January to match the Census Bureau numbers.

**Note: January 2017, 2019, 2020 & 2021 all showed a decrease not on an annual basis but on a monthly basis, as the numbers reported last month are adjusted to correspond to the Census Bureau data.

*** January 2022 and January 2023 showed a massive 1 million+ adjustment increase in population.

The last time we saw a major deviation from the normal increase was in January 2012, when the population increased by 1.685 million, possibly because Obama legalized a bunch of illegal aliens at that time. Is it possible that the 2017 -2021 downward adjustments are the result of Trump’s stricter immigration policies?

Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)

The LFPR can have a major impact on the actual level of unemployment. This month it is up from 62.5% to 62.7%.

Tom Thomas, one of our readers reminds us that if you want to compare U-3 numbers, you have to do it in light of the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR). He said, “since U-3 only measures those who are actively looking for a job, if the labor force declines (i.e. lots of people stop looking) the U-3 rate will appear better than it actually is. So, in order to compare two time periods, you have to adjust for the LFPR.”

For more information, see Labor Force Participation Rate.

Data Collection Methods:

For Calculating Unemployment, the BLS says theyinterview “60,000 different households statistically calculated to represent the entire country.” However, they only contact about 15,000 of these households each month, and then use statistical modeling to estimate the U.S. unemployment rate from this data sample. “The households in the pool are rotated to limit the burden on any specific family.” In addition to questions about employment status, the CPS tracks work experience, annual earnings, school enrollment, and whether school-aged children are working, etc.

See Is the Government Fudging Unemployment Numbers? for the comparison of Gallup numbers vs. Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers.

Historical Context

According to Shadowstats, the government is really underestimating unemployment by even more than our numbers suggest since “long-term discouraged workers were defined out of official existence in 1994.” The new U-6 numbers only include short-term discouraged workers. Once we understand that the Labor Force Participation Rate does not include “Long \-Term Unemployed”, we can see that a big part of the decline in the BLS numbers is accounted for simply by redefining long-term unemployed individuals as out of the labor force, and so as if by magic the unemployment rate falls. But the ShadowStats number, which refuses to ignore these people, remains steady.

Current Unemployment Rate (4)

See U-6 Unemployment Rate for more information on the broader U-6 unemployment calculation that includes these “discouraged” unemployed and gives a truer picture of the total unemployment situation. Also, see the Misery index ( which includes Unemployment Rate+ Inflation Rate). The adjusted unemployment rate in January of 2009, when Obama was sworn in, was 7.8%. Subsequently, the rate reached a peak of 10.1%. The average unemployment rate during the Bush presidency was 5.3%, and during the Clinton presidency, it was 5.2%. In addition to looking at the unemployment rate, I prefer to look at the actual employment rate, which often shows a different picture, in that we can see how many people are actually employed and it is less easily manipulated since the number of people who have opted for retirement or just stopped looking for work is not a factor. See the Current Employment Data.

How the USGovernment Comes Up with the Current Unemployment Rate

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, they don’t actually track the unemployment numbers, but instead, they base the all-important “Unemployment Rate” on a survey. You would think they would collect the numbers from the 50 states who would get them from their unemployment offices. But that is not how it is done. Unemployment rates are calculated based on a random survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS). No one can accuse the government of being efficient, rather than calling the main office of 50 state offices (or having the 50 state numbers automatically reported). Instead, the government calls up 60,000 households every month and then estimates the unemployment rate based on that sample. According to the BLS,

Every month, one-fourth of the households in the sample are changed, so that no household is interviewed more than 4 consecutive months. This practice avoids placing too heavy a burden on the households selected for the sample. After a household is interviewed for 4 consecutive months, it leaves the sample for 8 months, and then is again interviewed for the same 4 calendar months a year later, before leaving the sample for good. This procedure results in approximately 75 percent of the sample remaining the same from month to month and 50 percent from year to year.

For more information on how the BLS performs the survey see BLS: How the Government Measures Unemployment Unemployment data is interesting but my question is always… yeah, but how many real people actually have jobs? In addition to calling 60,000 households, the government also performs a Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey where they collect data from employers. The CES survey sample is larger, and so the employment data is considered more reliable than the unemployment data. For more information, See: Current Employment Data Historical Employment Data Chart The Misery index measures inflation plus unemployment and is a good measure of the discomfort of the country’s population. Current Employment vs. Unemployment Chart Are they just two sides of the same coin, or is there more? Sometimes the best thing to do during times of economic decline is to go back to school and wait out the decline while improving your skills at the same time. SeeThe Difference a Degree Makes in Unemployment Levels for more information on how a degree might help.

Source: US-BLS Current Unemployment Rate Data

Current Unemployment Rate (2024)

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